Comparative Market Analysis of Ilya Kovalchuk

by Anne

I'm a Realtor by trade, and as part of the job of a Realtor, we do comparative market anaylses for homes we list. This determines what dollar amount a house is likely to sell for in today's market. In different market conditions that dollar amount would be different but we're only looking at the here and now.

I saw a headline debating the market value of Ilya Kovalchuk and it got the wheels turning. Here now is my CMA for Ilya Kovalchuk's annual cap hit.

When doing a CMA, you must find comparable houses (or players in this case). Therefore my criteria shall be this:

Objective Criteria:
Born between 1977 - 1985
Top-six forward
Signed a multi-year UFA contract or contract extension within the last 2 seasons (July 1, 2009 - day of writing September 1, 2010)

Here are our comparables:
Marian Hossa
Rick Nash
Marc Savard
Ryan Kesler
Mikko Koivu

We're basing these stats on the 60+GP seasons they played BEFORE they signed these contracts/extensions.

We're using cost per goal and cost per point to determine where Kovalchuk fits.

Now here's how Kovalchuk fits into this chart:

Based on the cost per goal, Kovalchuk's cap hit should be $10,587,153.00

Based on the cost per point, Kovalchuk's cap hit should be $7,809,064.90

So, based on the CMA, my recommended cap hit for Ilya Kovalchuk should fall between those two numbers. There is subjective criteria such as Nash and Koivu being the Captains of their teams and lifelong membership with their young organizations, Kesler's potential to captain the Canucks and whether or not he's always been a true top-six player, Savard's injury history, and Hossa's potential circumvention of the salary cap rules. Therefore I leave it to your discretion as the GM to choose the potential cap hit you feel the subject player should have. The length of the listing period contract is your decision to make. I recommend several years as this player has shown great consistency and is highly desirable to many.

These are my recommendations as a professional Realtor, the final decision is ultimately yours. Should we disagree strongly in the value of the subject player, we will have the opportunity to walk away from the deal. This must be a mutual decision moving forward.

Thank you and have a nice day.

Will This Scene Make it Into The Movie About His Life?

by Anne

Is anyone else loving every second of these Sean Avery shenanigans?

I wonder how this will play out in that movie they're writing?

Will this somehow turn into a conveniently timed ruse all so Sean-o can get back to NYC in time to prep the models for fashion week?

Will it be secret code to let on-screen Elisha know he still loves her and they'll have a romantic rendezvous at Bloomingdales and buy coordinating Gucci belts?

Will Dion Phaneuf be the "douche bag superstar"? I picture Phaneuf's character as if Sidney Crosby were an abusive boyfriend with a secret drinking problem. Elisha is the troubled starlet, fleeing home to Canada, drawn by the allure of Dion's slightly Frankenstein-eqsue forehead combined with Sid the Kid's scoring prowess and on-screen affability, only to realize that she left it all behind when Sean flew off to Dallas. Elisha will realize the error of her ways, leave abusive Dion Crosby and fly to Sean in his time of strife, organizing shoe racks and accessory tables at Bryant Park as he smiles inwardly, knowing he's fooled us all.

We hear "sloppy seconds", she hears "knight in shining armour".

This is the best thing to happen during finals.

Ryan Miller in Your Bedroom...

by Anne

For all you ladies.... or gents, (whatev) who have ever wanted to get Ryan Miller alone in your room, now you can!!

How about Marshawn? Bruce Smith? Jim Kelly?

I know what one I'M getting... AWWW YEAH

As TOTALLY BADASS as it is that we're atop the WORLD right now, HOW AMAZING IS IT THAT MY LONGSHOT FAVORITE TEAM, THE TAMPA BAY RAYS HAVE TIED THE SERIES AT 1-1.

For those who don't know, while bored on Easter, I decided that I was going to start following baseball over the summer and set off to pick the most random HOT MESS of a team I could find.

The fact that they'd never had a winning season, the team was known for bench clearing brawls and the fact that they had just decided to change the team name like half an hour before I began my search lead me to the Tampa Bay Rays. AND NOW THEY COULD WIN THE WORLD SERIES. HOW RIDICULOUS IS THAT???

FURTHER PROOF THAT MY LOVE CAN MOVE MOUNTAINS.

Also, apparently the Sabres don't live and die based on who gets the pigeon? WHAT?!

From TV's blog:

The media have made some fuzz about our lockerroom “pigeon”. There’s really not that much about it. It really started out as a joke. I don’t even know who recived the bird after the Boston game. For us it’s just a gag.

Pssshhhhhh you know he's only saying that because he's trying to put up a strong front for when he doesn't get it and he's all weepy and upset and Ashley has to give him one of their son's stuffed chickens to calm him down.

I still miss Goose :( and Yoyo :( and Craigory :(

Do We Really Need Him?

by Anne

The answer is, of course, yes. We were a better team last season when he was in the line-up. 40 pts in 48 games is nothing to just dismiss...

I'm just so sick of hearing him describe all the things that are wrong with his body. Maybe he's just doing it for attention. Let's try as an entire city to ignore Timmy's next injury completely and see how fast he gets back on the ice.

I miss Goose and Yoyo :'(

Covered in Controversy

by Anne

I was all set to write about the ridiculous happenings over at Covered in Oil, but Puck Daddy has done a thorough recap of the situation.

Basically, Dave Berry, a writer for Covered in Oil, an Edmonton Oilers blog, was given a press pass to collect quotes post game and sit in the press box during a recent Oilers game, not for Covered in Oil, for another news outlet. To stave off boredom during an Oilers/Avalanche game, Dave began a live blog, only to be shut down before the third period by the team's PR brass for abusing his press pass. It sounds like a hot mess that the Oilers REALLY screwed up.

I'm not a big follower of the Oilers blogging, obviously, but after only sampling taste of what its like to have someone write to you pissed off, I can't imagine how angry and frustrated Dave and the rest of the Oilers blogosphere must be over this horribly mishandled situation. He's since stopped writing for the blog, not because he was told to, but because he's become, understandably, disenchanted with the whole thing.

Even from this North East Division couch, I wanted to throw my support behind Dave because we bloggers no matter how big (Covered in Oil) or small (Sabretooth's House) need to stick together.