Comparative Market Analysis of Ilya Kovalchuk

by Anne

I'm a Realtor by trade, and as part of the job of a Realtor, we do comparative market anaylses for homes we list. This determines what dollar amount a house is likely to sell for in today's market. In different market conditions that dollar amount would be different but we're only looking at the here and now.

I saw a headline debating the market value of Ilya Kovalchuk and it got the wheels turning. Here now is my CMA for Ilya Kovalchuk's annual cap hit.

When doing a CMA, you must find comparable houses (or players in this case). Therefore my criteria shall be this:

Objective Criteria:
Born between 1977 - 1985
Top-six forward
Signed a multi-year UFA contract or contract extension within the last 2 seasons (July 1, 2009 - day of writing September 1, 2010)

Here are our comparables:
Marian Hossa
Rick Nash
Marc Savard
Ryan Kesler
Mikko Koivu

We're basing these stats on the 60+GP seasons they played BEFORE they signed these contracts/extensions.

We're using cost per goal and cost per point to determine where Kovalchuk fits.

Now here's how Kovalchuk fits into this chart:

Based on the cost per goal, Kovalchuk's cap hit should be $10,587,153.00

Based on the cost per point, Kovalchuk's cap hit should be $7,809,064.90

So, based on the CMA, my recommended cap hit for Ilya Kovalchuk should fall between those two numbers. There is subjective criteria such as Nash and Koivu being the Captains of their teams and lifelong membership with their young organizations, Kesler's potential to captain the Canucks and whether or not he's always been a true top-six player, Savard's injury history, and Hossa's potential circumvention of the salary cap rules. Therefore I leave it to your discretion as the GM to choose the potential cap hit you feel the subject player should have. The length of the listing period contract is your decision to make. I recommend several years as this player has shown great consistency and is highly desirable to many.

These are my recommendations as a professional Realtor, the final decision is ultimately yours. Should we disagree strongly in the value of the subject player, we will have the opportunity to walk away from the deal. This must be a mutual decision moving forward.

Thank you and have a nice day.